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A family of curves for world population

World Population Peak

The greatest problem of the 21st century is world population, not global warming or the price of oil. This is the problem that drives all other problems, especially climate change. This is the problem that is most likely to cause excessive deaths in the billions. Yet there is no question that the world population problem will be resolved in this century one way or another, for good or for bad.

What is not going to happen is that the world population will continue to grow at the exponential rate that it has since the start of the industrial revolution. If it did, it would reach 35 billion people by the year 2100. The Earth will simply not support such a population.

What is going to happen is that world population will continue to growth for a while, peak, drop, and then settle to sustainable level. The United Nations estimates peak at about 9.2 billion people will occur in 2050.

The UN does not make any prediction of the sustainable level. There is a good reason for this. We can still affect this number. The sustainable number will probably be between six billion and two billion. This is the number that is now up in the air. The actions we and our students take will powerfully affect it.

Three approaches to addressing the world population problem are currently in use:

  1. The Four Horsemen – The four horsemen of the apocalypse are War, Famine, Pestilence and their leader, Death. Aids is an example of this effect, it alone dropped the UN maximum population estimate from 12 billion down to 9 billion. Those who would solve the population problem by having the four horsemen run their course, speak of it as the natural way or the will of God. Allowing so many deaths to occur without a major effort to prevent them is completely unethical. The present situation in Darfur is a good example of these horsemen's work. It is a war over water; many more such wars can be expected. Simply ignoring them will not do.
  2. Draconian Measures – The government can set up draconian rules on who can have babies and how many they can have. This system is currently in use in China. It can only be used in the most authoritarian states and could not be used in the USA under any circumstances.
  3. Woman’s Reproductive Health – If every woman in the world had the knowledge, societal acceptance, and resources to manager her reproductive health to the level she felt best, then the population move to a sustainable level. Women simply prefer to have a small number of children if they are sure they can see them raised successfully. This approach is both moral and ethical. It builds a world in which all children are valued. It is a great woman’s issue and a great gay issue.

The whole subject of world population is a third rail for politicians. If they touch it, their political careers are over. Too many people are stuck with the present system, after all it is the one that produced the enormous success of the human species over all the Earth. They do not see that it also got us into to our present problems, and do not want to even talk about the available solutions.

This inability to face reality prevents politicians from using a systems analysis for the big picture. If you cannot look at a top level problem, you cannot deal effectively with any of the other interrelated problems. The politicians are stuck dealing with today's catastrophe or searching for a non-existent silver bullet. Most of the work must therefore be done by NGO’s.

Education:

This topic has the greatest potential for teaching an understanding of the source of our problems, the historic significance of these times, and how personal decisions effect world outcomes. It also addresses some of the most difficult problems that both teachers and students will face.

Status of Idea:

This topic is so controversial that not one will even talk about it. Contact me if you have the guts to take it on.

References:

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